2019 NFL over/under picks: AFC team win totals

NFL Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck
The sudden retirement of quarterback Andrew Luck caused a dramatic shift in the 2019 win total for the Indianapolis Colts. (Photo credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports)

When betting NFL over/under win totals, shopping for a price or a half-win can be just as important as predicting how teams will perform. The following is a rundown of 2019 AFC and NFC over/under win totals, complete with odds, 2018 records, and predictions.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

2019 win total: 8.5 (over +100/under -120)

2018 record: 10-6

Prediction: This sure feels like an 8-8 season for the Baltimore Ravens. Not because of a lack of talent, but due to the difficulty of the Ravens’ schedule. Out-of-division road trips include the Kansas City Chiefs (Week 3), Seattle Seahawks (Week 7), and Los Angeles Rams (Week 12). A marquee matchup at home against the Super Bowl LIII champion New England Patriots (Week 9), in addition to the always-grueling AFC North rivalries, won’t make things easier on quarterback Lamar Jackson’s Ravens. UNDER

BUFFALO BILLS

2019 win total: 6.5 (over -186/under +155)

2018 record: 6-10

Prediction: What are your thoughts on quarterback Josh Allen? Because that will likely determine whether the Buffalo Bills take a step forward in 2019. Buffalo has added some talent to help ease the second-year gunslinger’s progress, but -186 on the over is a cause for concern. If you shop around and can find a price at 6.5 or even a 7-win total, pull the trigger on the over. UNDER

CINCINNATI BENGALS

2019 win total: 6 (over +125/under -145)

2018 record: 6-10

Prediction: It’s hard to imagine the Cincinnati Bengals finishing above any of their AFC North counterparts. For what it’s worth, fourth-round pick Ryan Finley opened some eyes during the preseason, and first-year head coach Zac Taylor might not be as married to veteran Andy Dalton if things go downhill in Cincinnati – which seems likely thanks to an unfavorable stretch to open the season. Wide receiver A.J. Green is in the final year of his contract, which means major changes could be on the horizon for the Bengals as they usher in a new era. UNDER

CLEVELAND BROWNS

2019 win total: 9 (over +110/under -130)

2018 record: 7-8-1

Prediction: The Cleveland Browns are getting a lot of love from the public, so it’s hard to tell where the hype ends and reality begins. Can wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (16 games total over the last two seasons) stay on the field? How much has the defense improved after struggling to get stops in 2018? Is Freddie Kitchens ready for a head-coaching job after just one year as an offensive coordinator? Will quarterback Baker Mayfield lead the Browns to the franchise’s first 10-win season since 2007? At +110, despite all the questions, it might be worth a shot. OVER

DENVER BRONCOS

2019 win total: 7 (over -110/under -110)

2018 record: 6-10

Prediction: For an organization that had once been a model of stability, Vic Fangio is now the fourth head coach employed by the Denver Broncos in the last six seasons. Fangio should be given more time to turn things around than the last two coaches, Vance Joseph and Gary Kubiak, but it isn’t going to happen overnight. The Von Miller-led defense is already solid, and Fangio should only help on that side of the ball, but quarterback Joe Flacco’s impact is debatable. A 7-9 season seems more like a pleasant surprise than a guarantee. UNDER

HOUSTON TEXANS

2019 win total: 8.5 (over -130/under +110)

2018 record: 11-5

Prediction: Expectations are high in Houston after an 11-5 season, which makes the 8.5 number surprisingly low – especially since the Texans might have been gifted a win or two as a result of AFC South opponent Andrew Luck’s retirement. The loss of star defensive end Jadeveon Clowney isn’t ideal, but J.J. Watt and one of the best front sevens in the NFL should still get the job done without him. Recently acquired left tackle Laremy Tunsil gives quarterback Deshaun Watson some much-needed protection. OVER

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

2019 win total: 7 (over -120/under +100)

2018 record: 10-6

Prediction: The sudden retirement of quarterback Andrew Luck was arguably the most surprising NFL news since former Detroit Lions great Barry Sanders decided to call it a career after the 1998 season. The number here has dropped from 9.5 to 7 as a result, and it’s hard to see Jacoby Brissett stepping in seamlessly – despite the Colts signing him to a $30 million deal in the wake of Luck’s retirement. UNDER

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

2019 win total: 8 (over -110/under -110)

2018 record: 5-11

Prediction: Everything that could have gone wrong went wrong for the Jacksonville Jaguars last season. Quarterback Nick Foles replacing Blake Bortles, at worst, is an upgrade, but running back Leonard Fournette and the rest of the offense need to be more productive. One of the most talented defenses in football can’t be asked to spend such long stretches on the field, and Foles is the type of game manager that can lead clock-chewing drives. A 9-win season is certainly not out of the question. OVER

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

2019 win total: 10.5 (over -130/under +110)

2018 record: 12-4

Prediction: Questions at running back are a cause for concern in Kansas City, especially if the run game allows opposing defenses to key-in on All-Pro quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs went out and signed LeSean McCoy after the Bills cut him just prior to the start of the regular season, but McCoy has questions of his own after his production plummeted last season. Maybe a reunion with head coach Andy Reid will spark a revival for McCoy’s career. Is running back enough of a problem to make the Chiefs two games worse in 2019? Probably not. OVER

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

2019 win total: 9.5 (over -155/under +130)

2018 record: 12-4

Prediction: As the days go by, it looks more and more like running back Melvin Gordon won’t be in the Week 1 lineup for the Los Angeles Chargers – if at all. From top to bottom, the Chargers still might be the most talented team in the NFL. Having said that, the Chargers will play one game in Los Angeles over an eight-week stretch thanks to the loss of a home game against the Chiefs in Mexico City and the bye week. Another 12-win season doesn’t seem likely as a result, but 10 wins still should be in play. OVER

MIAMI DOLPHINS

2019 win total: 4.5 (over +110/under -130)

2018 record: 7-9

Prediction: Will it be Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa or Oregon’s Justin Hebert? The tank is on in Miami, as the Dolphins hope to finally find their first franchise quarterback since Dan Marino in next season’s NFL Draft. The offseason acquisition of Josh Rosen looked to be the first part of that process, but Rosen was unable to beat out journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick for the Week 1 starting job at quarterback. For a team desperate to find a solution in the passing game, and apparently not too concerned about wins and losses, there is no excuse for not allowing Rosen to start Week 1 – unless he’s even less prepared than advertised. UNDER

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

2019 win total: 11 (over -135/under +115)

2018 record: 11-5

Prediction: Will wide receiver Antonio Brown conform to ‘The Patriot Way’ or continue to cause problems? Is this the year quarterback Tom Brady, 42, begins to show his age? How much will Brady miss retired tight end Rob Gronkowski? Will this be the first year since 2009 that the Patriots fail to win 11 games? How much magic can head coach Bill Belichick possibly work in his 20th season in New England? The Patriots have to take a step back eventually, right? All of the above probably won’t go wrong for the Patriots in 2019, but a 10-6 campaign doesn’t seem unfathomable. OVER

NEW YORK JETS

2019 win total: 7 (over -175/under +150)

2018 record: 4-12

Prediction: The New York Jets appear to be heading in the right direction, however, the win total and over price are awfully high for a team that won just four games a season ago. Much has changed for Gang Green – enter new head coach Adam Gase, running back Le’Veon Bell, wide receiver Jamison Crowder, and rookie defensive end Quinnen Williams – but it’s hard to find many wins in the first eight weeks of the season. Can the Jets fatten up on the back nine? Yes, although an 8-win season to hit the over is still asking a lot out of second-year quarterback Sam Darnold and company. This year should be more about progress than playoffs. If the Jets can accomplish both, even better. Just not at that price. UNDER

OAKLAND RAIDERS

2019 win total: 6 (over +115/under -135)

2018 record: 4-12

Prediction: The Raiders would like to make their final season in Oakland a memorable one before moving to Las Vegas in 2020. Quarterback Derek Carr enters Year 2 under head coach Jon Gruden without what he thought was going to be his new primary target in All-Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown. Brown created one problem after another in his short-lived tenure with the Raiders, with the talented-yet-troublesome receiver seeing more time in the headlines than on the gridiron. Carr will still be aided by some improvements on the offensive line and the addition of rookie running back Josh Jacobs. The schedule won’t provide much smooth sailing, however, at +115, the over seems tempting. OVER

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

2019 win total: 9 (over -140/under +120)

2018 record: 9-6-1

Prediction: No Antonio Brown, no Le’Veon Bell – no problem for head coach Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and running back James Conner have proven capable of producing in the absence of Brown and Bell, while providing far less of a distraction. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, 37, showed no signs of slowing down last season – leading the NFL in completions and passing yards. However, he will need to cut down on the 16 interceptions he threw a season ago – which also led the NFL. Given the circus the Steelers had to deal with in 2018, it’s difficult to foresee Pittsburgh winning less games in 2019. If the Steelers can stay healthy, a 10-win season should be in play. OVER

TENNESSEE TITANS

2019 win total: 8 (over +110/under -130)

2018 record: 9-7

Prediction: The four-game suspension of left tackle Taylor Lewan for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing substances is a huge blow to an offensive line that was already going to have its hands full the few weeks of the season with road games against the Cleveland Browns (Week 1), Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 3), and Atlanta Falcons (Week 4). Luckily for the Titans, the defense plays a smash-mouth style of football that can shorten the field for quarterback Marcus Mariota and the offense. If running back Derrick Henry can overcome the loss of Lewan, and pick up where he left off in the final weeks of 2018, the Titans should be able to weather the storm until Lewan returns. A scheduling quirk leads to playing the Houston Texans twice in the final three weeks of the season, which could go a long way in determining the Titans’ win total. This is one of the harder numbers to figure out, so take the price in either direction if you can get it. OVER