The distinction of best game of the day Thursday likely goes to the Buffalo Bills taking on the Dallas Cowboys. The game could perhaps be made even more enjoyable thanks to some Thanksgiving NFL prop bets to go along with your turkey dinner.
Please note, the odds for prop bets can change more rapidly than point spreads. More markets should also become available as kickoff nears.
Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 47 over/under), Thursday at 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Neil Bisman’s Thanksgiving NFL prop bets and picks
PointsBet is offering boosted odds on a few Thanksgiving NFL prop bets in this game.
The current boosted Thanksgiving NFL prop bets are:
- Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen to get +200 passing yards (-125, boosted from -135)
- Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott to get 2+ total touchdowns (-250, boosted from -350)
- Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott to get 75+ rushing yards (-115, boosted from -125)
- Cowboys receiver Amari Cooper to get 60+ receiving yards (-115, boosted from -125).
Let’s see if any of them are worth some action.
The Cowboys have been allowing 213.6 passing yards per game, good for sixth in the NFL. Allen threw for 185 yards last week against the Broncos, ranked just above the Cowboys at fifth, and has crossed the 200-yard mark just twice in his last five games. I don’t like Allen’s chances here in a game where the Bills are more likely to rely on the run.
Prescott getting two total touchdowns seems much more doable. Prior to last week’s goose egg on a rainy day in New England, Prescott had thrown for three touchdown passes in each of his last three games. The only problem is even with the boost, the odds aren’t all that favorable. It’s likely worth a wager but the return on investment won’t be as fruitful.
Elliot running for 75+ yards (-115) is more my speed. Elliott has rushed for 75 or more yards in four of his last six games and six times this season over 11 games. The Bills are tied for 20th in the NFL in yards allowed per rush (4.4), so you can run on them.
One of the one-on-one matchups everyone is looking forward to Thursday is Cooper going up against Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White. Cooper was shut out last week, recording zero catches on two targets, but I’m willing to throw that game out given the weather. White is quietly emerging as one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, but 60+ yards at -115 for Cooper is still attainable even with White having a good day.
As for the game itself, it really depends on how much of a fire you think Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has lit under his team following last week’s disappointing loss to the Patriots.
I don’t love the spread here, but I like the Cowboys at -6.5 more than I do at -7 or above. I could see this line climbing to as high as 7.5 by kickoff. For now, I like the Cowboys (-6.5) at anything less than that magical 7.5 number.
As “America’s team,” the Dallas Cowboys have made playing on Thanksgiving Day a yearly tradition. The Cowboys don’t just play on Thanksgiving, they win. The Cowboys have the best winning percentage (61.8 percent) on Thanksgiving of any team that has played at least 10 games on the holiday.
The Buffalo Bills are 8-3 this season because of a strong defense that ranks third in the NFL – allowing just 15.7 points per game – and a weak schedule. The only team the Bills have beaten .500 or better are the 6-5 Tennessee Titans.
The Cowboys defensive group has been no slouch either, allowing just 19.1 points per game – seventh best in the NFL. With these two top defenses facing off on Thanksgiving, taking the under 45 total points (-110) is the play.
Nine of the Bills’ 11 games this season have finished below 45 points. The Bills consistently have low-scoring games, thanks to their emphasis on running the football. Rookie running back Devin Singletary is coming off his best game of the season in Week 12, where he rushed 21 times for 106 yards.
Singletary is +145 on PointsBet to get at least 75 rushing yards against the Cowboys. Singletary has picked up at least 75 yards on the ground in three of his last four games and consider that the Cowboys defense, while great, is just 15th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (104.8), picking Singletary is logical.
Former Cowboys wide receiver Cole Beasley is making his debut at AT&T Stadium as a visiting player. Beasley is -114 to get at least 50+ receiving yards in the game, a feat he has accomplished in two of his last three games. The 30-year-old Beasley should be highly motivated against the only other team he has ever played for in his NFL career.
With the Cowboys defense focusing so much on the run game and making sure No. 1 wide receiver John Brown doesn’t have a big outing, Beasley could fly under the radar.
Prediction: Cowboys (-6.5) cover on Thanksgiving
The Bills are 8-3 and have a solid chance or reaching the playoffs but this is a tough matchup for them. On the road against a stiff defense, quarterback Josh Allen will need to step up.
Considering how Allen has not thrown for 275+ yards in a game this year, and is completing just 60.2 percent of his passes this season, it’s hard to imagine a breakout game. Only Jameis Winston and the recently-benched Marcus Mariota have a worse completion percentage.
The Cowboys have the No. 1 passing attack in the NFL, averaging 303.5 passing yards per game. Compare that to the Bills 24th-ranked air attack and this game could be a blowout.
You also have to imagine the Cowboys playing with a little extra effort Thursday after team owner Jerry Jones ripped the coaching staff following Week 12’s loss to the New England Patriots. “Disappointed is not the word,” Jones said after the game. “There’s no question that we were given an opportunity, there were things we could have taken advantage of.”
An interesting teaser to consider is betting the Cowboys (-0.5) coupled with the final score being under a combined 52 points at -110. It doesn’t look promising that the Bills offense will be able to hang with the Cowboys, so betting on Dallas and the under total number of points should be considered.
Matt Schmitto, RotoGrinders sports betting editor
Jerry Jones wasn’t happy with Jason Garrett last week, but the Cowboys are in a good spot to bounce back against the Buffalo Bills, who have only beaten one team with a winning record. Only problem? The Cowboys haven’t beaten anyone with a winning record. Though both teams have a lot to prove, I’m more skeptical of the Bills. Buffalo’s wins have come against opponents that are a combined 19-58. Their wins against the Jets, Giants and Bengals were all by four points or less. While the Cowboys fell short against the Saints, Packers, Vikings, and Patriots, they played three of those games within four points and they’ve beaten the bad teams (minus the Jets) quite handily. With two-thirds of betting tickets backing the Bills, bettors are bit distracted by the Bills’ 8-3 record and are opting to take the points on Thanksgiving Day. I won’t join the crowd. I think the Cowboys show up on both sides of the ball, scoring points and getting the best of Josh Allen when the Bills have the ball. I’m taking Dallas -6.5.
Not only do I like the Cowboys to cover Thursday, but I also think it’s time to buy low on Dallas to win the Super Bowl. You can get the Cowboys +2500 now, one of the best values on “America’s Team” all year. The 49ers are the clear front runners to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LIV, but compared to the AFC, the NFC is fairly wide open and the Cowboys are still in the driver’s seat to win the division over the Philadelphia Eagles. If they do win the NFC East, Dallas 25-1 to win the Super Bowl is a steal.
As for Thanksgiving NFL prop bets, I want to take advantage of a game script that I expect forces Allen to pass as the Bills play catch-up in the second half. It might take garbage time to do so, but I think Allen throws over 218.5 passing yards (-115).
One receiver Allen will be throwing to is Cole Beasley, who makes his return to AT&T Stadium after leaving Dallas in the off-season. Beasley has caught gone over 70 yards in two of his previous three games. I might be buying into the revenge narrative here, but I think Beasley will have plenty of opportunities to catch for over 43.5 receiving yards (-115) against his former team.
On the Cowboys, I’m betting Michael Gallup Over 49.5 receiving yards (-115). Tre’Davious White will likely shadow Dak Prescott’s favorite target, Amari Cooper. Cooper was shut down by the Patriots, and Gallup ended the game as the Cowboys’ leading receiver as a result. Before the rainy game in Foxborough, Prescott targeted Gallup a combined 23 times in weeks 11 and 12.